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blog.heim.xyz
| | www.cold-takes.com
3.2 parsecs away

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| | My preferred method of forecasting transformative AI, with pros and cons.
| | epochai.org
3.6 parsecs away

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| | We combine the Direct Approach framework with simple models of progress in algorithms, investment, and compute costs to produce a user-adjustable forecast of when TAI will be achieved.
| | epochai.org
3.4 parsecs away

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| | AI's potential to automate labor is likely to alter the course of human history within decades, with the availability of compute being the most important factor driving rapid progress in AI capabilities.
| | epochai.org
25.5 parsecs away

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| We explore several techniques that induce a tradeoff between spending more resources on training or on inference and characterize the properties of this tradeoff. We outline some implications for AI governance.