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epochai.org | ||
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www.greaterwrong.com
Hi everyone! I have just published a report with Convergence Analysis exploring how transformative AI (TAI) could be developed within the next ten years. It's called Pathways to short TAI timelines (pdf version; Google Doc version). In the report, I examine the debates over compute scaling and recursive improvement as mechanisms for rapid capabilities progress, distill the core elements of these debates under seven distinct scenarios of rapid progress, and ultimately build a case for the plausibility of TAI being developed by 2035. |
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www.erichgrunewald.com
The Prospect of an AI Winter - Texts on this and that. |
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www.lesswrong.com
In 2021, I proposed measuring progress in the perplexity of language models and extrapolating past results to determine when language models were exp... |
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www.lesswrong.com
Our alignment research aims to make artificial general intelligence (AGI) aligned with human values and follow human intent. We take an iterative, em... |
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