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joecarlsmith.com
| | www.greaterwrong.com
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| | In a previous post, I re-discovered full non-indexical updating (FNC), an anthropic theory I'm ashamed to say I had once known and then forgot. Thanks to Wei Dai for reminding me of that. There is a problem with FNC, though. In fact, there are problems with all anthropic probability theories. Both FNC and SIA violate conservation of expected evidence: you can be in a situation where you know with certainty that your future probability will be different in a particular direction, from your current one. SSA has a different problem: it allows you to make decisions that change the probability of past events.
| | www.lesswrong.com
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| | Robin Hanson's Futarchy is a proposal to let prediction markets make governmental decisions. We can view an operating Futarchy as an agent, and ask i...
| | www.alignmentforum.org
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| | Note: after putting this online, I noticed several problems with my original framing of the arguments. While I don't think they invalidated the overa...
| | futurism.com
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| The Anthrobotics Cluster seeks to start conversations (and answer questions) regarding some of the biggest topics in AI research. Here, Luis de Miranda, one of the founders, discusses anthrobots and the relationship between humans and machines.