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www.lesswrong.com | ||
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www.greaterwrong.com
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| | | | | This post was inspired by Benja's SUDT post. I'm going to describe another simplified model of UDT which is equivalent to Benja's proposal, and is based on standard game theory concepts as described in this Wikipedia article. First let's define what is a "single player extensive-form game with chance moves and imperfect information": Now let's try using that to solve some UDT problems: Absent-Minded Driver is the simplest case, since it's already discussed in the literature as a game of the above form. It's strange that not everyone agrees that the best strategy is indeed the best, but let's skip that and move on. | |
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www.alignmentforum.org
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| | | | | Note: after putting this online, I noticed several problems with my original framing of the arguments. While I don't think they invalidated the overa... | |
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www.greaterwrong.com
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| | | | | In a previous post, I re-discovered full non-indexical updating (FNC), an anthropic theory I'm ashamed to say I had once known and then forgot. Thanks to Wei Dai for reminding me of that. There is a problem with FNC, though. In fact, there are problems with all anthropic probability theories. Both FNC and SIA violate conservation of expected evidence: you can be in a situation where you know with certainty that your future probability will be different in a particular direction, from your current one. SSA has a different problem: it allows you to make decisions that change the probability of past events. | |
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amatria.in
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| | | (I recently turned this guide into a paper. You can find it here) | ||
