/explore
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www.astralcodexten.com | ||
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www.lesswrong.com
In 2021, I proposed measuring progress in the perplexity of language models and extrapolating past results to determine when language models were exp... |
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epochai.org
AI's potential to automate labor is likely to alter the course of human history within decades, with the availability of compute being the most important factor driving rapid progress in AI capabilities. |
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www.greaterwrong.com
Hi all, I've been working on some AI forecasting research and have prepared a draft report on timelines to transformative AI. I would love feedback from this community, so I've made the report viewable in a Google Drive folder here. With that said, most of my focus so far has been on the high-level structure of the framework, so the particular quantitative estimates are very much in flux and many input parameters aren't pinned down well - I wrote the bulk of this report before July and have received feedback since then that I haven't fully incorporated yet. I'd prefer if people didn't share it widely in a low-bandwidth way (e.g., just posting key graphics on Facebook or Twitter) since the conclusions don't reflect Open Phil's "institutional view" yet, and th... |
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joecarlsmith.com
It's really important; we have a real shot; there are a lot of ways we can fail. |
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