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www.lesswrong.com
| | thezvi.wordpress.com

With the year ending and my first Vox post coming out, this week was a natural time to take stock. I wrote my first best-of post in a long time and laid out my plans for my 501c(3). It was also another eventful week. We got a lot more clarity on the OpenAI situation, although...
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| | scottaaronson.blog

Update (Nov. 22): Theoretical computer scientist and longtime friend-of-the-blog Boaz Barak writes to tell me that, coincidentally, he and Ben Edelman just released a big essay advocating a version of "Reform AI Alignment" on Boaz's Windows on Theory blog, as well as on LessWrong. (I warned Boaz that, having taken the momentous step of posting...
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| | www.gleech.org


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| | www.greaterwrong.com

Hi all, I've been working on some AI forecasting research and have prepared a draft report on timelines to transformative AI. I would love feedback from this community, so I've made the report viewable in a Google Drive folder here. With that said, most of my focus so far has been on the high-level structure of the framework, so the particular quantitative estimates are very much in flux and many input parameters aren't pinned down well - I wrote the bulk of this report before July and have received feedback since then that I haven't fully incorporated yet. I'd prefer if people didn't share it widely in a low-bandwidth way (e.g., just posting key graphics on Facebook or Twitter) since the conclusions don't reflect Open Phil's "institutional view" yet, and th...
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