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www.steelsnowflake.org | ||
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www.bretthall.org
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| | | | | There is perhaps no debate that departs as quickly from what we actually know into what we would actually like to be true as in the topic of: life beyond the Earth. One reason for general confusion... | |
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thinc.blog
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| | | | | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F5mndlV_R3w Came across this brief BBC discussion of what we know about the uniqueness of Planet Earth. A reminder that one reason why we haven't been hearing from other civilizations in the galaxy is that there might not be any. We might be living in a garden spot of the Universe that is much more... | |
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mathinvestor.org
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| | | | | [AI summary] The text explores the post-hoc probability fallacy across various domains, emphasizing that assigning probabilities to singular events based on observed outcomes is logically flawed. It discusses examples like the evolution of life, the fine-tuning of the universe, and the multiverse theory, all of which are criticized for relying on flawed probabilistic reasoning. The text also references Steven Pinker's analogy to illustrate the fallacy, highlighting that such reasoning often leads to incorrect conclusions about the likelihood of events. Overall, the summary underscores the importance of recognizing the limitations of probabilistic reasoning when dealing with unique, unrepeatable phenomena. | |
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